Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 11.275532 13.827784 16.679161 20.079860 24.003428 28.366288 33.561677
2026-01-11 7.748835 11.024335 15.099445 20.449338 27.188045 35.291993 45.662688
2026-01-18 5.888363 9.443586 14.255326 21.041387 30.142320 41.692910 57.199005
2026-01-25 4.385286 7.878701 12.988938 20.668995 31.538038 45.965812 66.102628
2026-02-01 3.477984 6.926947 12.331469 20.907434 33.598654 51.069132 76.217749
2026-02-08 2.672893 5.921438 11.377400 20.506661 34.602676 54.675110 84.397821
2026-02-15 2.029655 5.018652 10.401411 19.886173 35.134261 57.543068 91.597189
2026-02-22 1.708330 4.634491 10.215726 20.465886 37.473591 63.082748 102.774589
2026-03-01 1.340788 4.048804 9.559861 20.152015 38.335367 66.428582 110.878185
2026-03-08 1.086734 3.635933 9.147114 20.186010 39.718791 70.585596 120.304910
2026-03-15 0.809409 3.069503 8.319600 19.349506 39.547176 72.278490 126.051799
2026-03-22 0.688874 2.873427 8.225021 19.861664 41.693776 77.701323 137.669660
2026-03-29 0.555830 2.606518 7.960280 20.079602 43.460987 82.802305 149.338109
2026-04-05 0.453759 2.393967 7.784240 20.463189 45.572282 88.609328 162.429322
2026-04-12 0.379415 2.240324 7.717444 21.056574 48.096880 95.207016 177.017739
2026-04-19 0.283583 1.948879 7.233130 20.684042 48.757823 98.664857 186.653791
2026-04-26 0.226867 1.781638 7.039972 20.922622 50.591901 104.196032 199.848389
2026-05-03 0.166257 1.547230 6.596773 20.521620 51.119426 107.449016 209.367840
2026-05-10 0.116235 1.315661 6.094473 19.900775 51.135451 109.767570 217.374465
2026-05-17 0.096253 1.244579 6.082854 20.480822 53.653796 116.679786 233.368918
2026-05-24 0.068853 1.087386 5.738233 20.166770 54.261911 120.121956 243.525834
2026-05-31 0.051485 0.980691 5.538817 20.200785 55.605891 124.963164 256.235263
2026-06-07 0.032102 0.811672 5.045620 19.363797 54.971911 126.056821 262.420837